An initiative by Orvantis Intelligence
About
Africa 2036 Intelligence is a foresight instrument for the 54 UN member states in Africa. It exists to make the range of plausible futures for this continent legible, evidenced and auditable — and to make its own limits equally visible.
The intellectual position
Most published futures work about Africa arrives in one of two shapes: a growth projection that flattens 54 countries into one trend line, or a narrative that treats the continent as a single story with a single direction. Both are convenient and both are wrong.
This platform takes a different position. Each country's possible futures are calibrated to its own recorded history — Acceleration is not "what if this country became Korea", it is "what if this country sustained the pace it has actually reached in its better years". That makes every band defensible, comparable across all 54 of them, and impossible to inflate.
Three further commitments follow from that. Uncertainty is drawn rather than disclaimed — countries the platform knows less about are rendered visibly less resolved on the map. Evidence and interpretation never look alike, because a reader must be able to tell a measurement from a judgement without reading the small print. And artificial intelligence is treated as one layer among twenty-two domains rather than as the whole story, because for most people in most of these economies it is not yet the thing that decides the decade.
Who this is for
- People making decisions with a horizon longer than a budget cycle — in government, in institutions, in businesses whose plans reach past 2031.
- Researchers and journalists who need a figure they can trace to a named publisher on a stated date, and who need to know what is missing as much as what is present.
- Anyone arguing about Africa's future who would rather argue from evidence, including evidence that cuts against them. Every projection here states what would invalidate it.
What it is not
It is not a prediction service, a ranking, a readiness index or an investment recommendation. It publishes no probabilities. It does not aggregate 54 countries into a continental score, because the arithmetic would be meaningless and the result would be used anyway.
Authorship
Africa 2036 Intelligence
An initiative by Orvantis Intelligence
Created and directed by Hannah Kwakye
No external funder, institutional partner, client or endorsement is claimed, because none exists to claim. Technical and model acknowledgements are recorded on the Process page rather than presented as authorship.
Rights and permitted use sets out what you may do with this work. Quoting, citing, linking, printing and teaching need no permission; the same page carries the route for permission requests, attribution disputes and reports of copied work.
State of the work
This is edition 6.2.4. It carries 54 countries, 74 indicator series and 158 reviewed documents. 13 countries still rest on indicator data alone and say so on their own pages, and the research-gap register counts what is missing rather than leaving it to be inferred. Corrections are published on the Changes page, including the ones that were this platform's own fault.