Shareable intelligence

Angola

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Central Africa

Angola

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$3,129 2025	$2,428 – $3,354	$1,966 – $3,553
Electricity access	56% 2024	63% – 72%	68% – 79%
Internet use	41% 2024	48% – 56%	52% – 64%

Growth bands: -4.14% · -1.49% · 1.16% a year per person, from Angola's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work

2031 versus 2036 · Angola

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 55.5% of the population (2024) to between 63% and 72% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 67% — a rise of 11.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 15.4 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 2 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 40.7% of the population (2024) to between 48% and 56% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 51% — a rise of 10.6 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 22.6 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 527,736 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $2,428 to $3,354 by 2031. The $926 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $3,129.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 46.4 million — roughly 7.4 million more people than in 2025, about 25.4 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 55.5% of the population (2024) to between 68% and 79% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 73% — a rise of 17.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 14.3 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 3.1 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 40.7% of the population (2024) to between 52% and 64% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 58% — a rise of 16.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 22.6 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 585,311 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,966 to $3,553 by 2036. The $1,587 between them is wider than half today's $3,129.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 53.2 million — roughly 14.2 million more people than in 2025, about 29.8 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

About US$753 million was committed for the Angolan section by development finance institutions in late 2025 (US DFC US$553m; DBSA…. Recorded as funded: it still has to actually reach recipients rather than sit in an envelope before it counts as money in motion.
For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 1.2% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 4.6% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Angola

Commodity dependence

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Natural resource rents were 30% of GDP in 2021. At this concentration the budget — and therefore public salaries and services — tracks prices set on other continents. The scenario question is not whether the resources exist but whether any value is captured, processed and taxed before they leave.

Why the band cannot contain it

The growth band averages across a commodity cycle, which flatters producers in a downswing and understates their exposure in an upswing. Price is set elsewhere and transmits to the budget within a quarter.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained move in the country's principal export price of more than roughly a third. The band averages across a cycle and understates both tails.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Angola

6 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Angola. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

2 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

6 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Angola · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels