Shareable intelligence

Algeria

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Northern Africa

Algeria

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$6,051 2025	$5,604 – $7,030	$5,257 – $7,965
Electricity access	100% 2024	100% – 100%	100% – 100%
Internet use	77% 2024	86% – 92%	90% – 96%

Growth bands: -1.27% · 0.66% · 2.53% a year per person, from Algeria's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
Everyone dependent on public salaries and services when prices fall
Families one illness away from selling productive assets

2031 versus 2036 · Algeria

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2031 is decided.
Internet use moves from 77.4% of the population (2024) to between 86% and 92% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 89% — a rise of 11.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 5.5 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 5.2 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $5,604 to $7,030 by 2031. The $1,426 between them is under a quarter of today's $6,051.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 50.6 million — roughly 3.2 million more people than in 2025, about 33.2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2036 is decided.
Internet use moves from 77.4% of the population (2024) to between 90% and 96% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 93% — a rise of 15.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 3.7 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 7.1 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $5,257 to $7,965 by 2036. The $2,708 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $6,051.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 53 million — roughly 5.6 million more people than in 2025, about 35.6 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

Algeria is identified among African states that have developed and begun implementing a national AI strategy. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 2.5% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 2.6% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Algeria

Commodity dependence

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Natural resource rents were 23% of GDP in 2021. At this concentration the budget — and therefore public salaries and services — tracks prices set on other continents. The scenario question is not whether the resources exist but whether any value is captured, processed and taxed before they leave.

Why the band cannot contain it

The growth band averages across a commodity cycle, which flatters producers in a downswing and understates their exposure in an upswing. Price is set elsewhere and transmits to the budget within a quarter.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained move in the country's principal export price of more than roughly a third. The band averages across a cycle and understates both tails.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Algeria

7 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Algeria. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

3 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

4 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

6 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Algeria · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels