Shareable intelligence

Gabon

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Central Africa

Gabon

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$8,263 2025	$7,616 – $9,202	$7,116 – $10,065
Electricity access	95% 2024	97% – 98%	98% – 99%
Internet use	69% 2024	77% – 84%	81% – 90%

Growth bands: -1.35% · 0.23% · 1.81% a year per person, from Gabon's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess
Everyone dependent on public salaries and services when prices fall

2031 versus 2036 · Gabon

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 95.1% of the population (2024) to between 97% and 98% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 98% — a rise of 2.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 73,063 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 54,001 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 68.7% of the population (2024) to between 77% and 84% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 80% — a rise of 11.6 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 575,733 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 235,375 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $7,616 to $9,202 by 2031. The $1,586 between them is under a quarter of today's $8,263.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 2.9 million — roughly 329,371 more people than in 2025, about 1.8 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 95.1% of the population (2024) to between 98% and 99% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 99% — a rise of 3.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 48,159 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 78,905 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 68.7% of the population (2024) to between 81% and 90% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 86% — a rise of 16.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 462,324 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 348,784 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $7,116 to $10,065 by 2036. The $2,949 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $8,263.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 3.2 million — roughly 617,454 more people than in 2025, about 2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

Gabon is identified as being at the drafting stage of a national AI policy. Recorded as proposed: it still has to be adopted before it counts as a change in how things work.
For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 1.8% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 3.5% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Gabon

Education & workforce capability

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Gross tertiary enrolment was 7.7% in 2003, with adult literacy at 89% (2021). A state cannot regulate, procure, audit or localise technologies it has too few people trained to understand. This constrains AI governance, energy planning and public administration simultaneously, and it takes a decade to change — which is exactly this platform's horizon.

Why the band cannot contain it

Human capital compounds on a decade lag. The tertiary enrolment rate today sets the ceiling on what the state can regulate and what firms can build in 2036, and no growth average encodes that.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained collapse or expansion in enrolment, or large-scale emigration of trained professionals.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Gabon

6 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Gabon. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

2 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

6 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Gabon · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels