Shareable intelligence

Gambia

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Western Africa

Gambia

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$919 2025	$790 – $1,173	$696 – $1,437
Electricity access	69% 2024	74% – 80%	78% – 85%
Internet use	49% 2024	60% – 70%	66% – 79%

Growth bands: -2.49% · 0.89% · 4.15% a year per person, from Gambia's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Off-grid communities, whose wait lengthens if capital concentrates on urban and industrial load
Households already spending most of their income on food

2031 versus 2036 · Gambia

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 69% of the population (2024) to between 74% and 80% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 77% — a rise of 7.8 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 740,311 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 134,538 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 49.5% of the population (2024) to between 60% and 70% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 65% — a rise of 15 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.1 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 292,514 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $790 to $1,173 by 2031. The $383 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $919.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 3.2 million — roughly 368,904 more people than in 2025, about 1.9 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 69% of the population (2024) to between 78% and 85% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 81% — a rise of 12.2 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 656,792 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 218,057 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 49.5% of the population (2024) to between 66% and 79% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 72% — a rise of 22.8 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 967,721 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 457,597 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $696 to $1,437 by 2036. The $741 between them is wider than half today's $919.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 3.5 million — roughly 671,483 more people than in 2025, about 2.2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 4.2% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 4.8% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Gambia

Energy availability

Material — Could push the outcome outside the modelled band.

69% of the population had electricity in 2024, and 39% in rural areas. Access is advancing but remains a real ceiling on industrial and digital ambition.

Why the band cannot contain it

Electricity is a precondition, not an output. A growth average cannot express that a factory, clinic or data centre simply cannot be operated at all.

What would invalidate the modelled band

Either a step change in generation and transmission delivery, or a sustained supply failure. Both break a projection built on gradual access gains.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Gambia

5 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Gambia. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Gambia · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels