Shareable intelligence

Morocco

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Northern Africa

Morocco

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$4,672 2025	$4,461 – $6,144	$4,292 – $7,720
Electricity access	100% 2024	100% – 100%	100% – 100%
Internet use	91% 2024	95% – 97%	96% – 98%

Growth bands: -0.77% · 1.95% · 4.67% a year per person, from Morocco's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
Irrigating farmers and cities drawing on the same stressed sources
Grid customers competing with data centre load for the same power

2031 versus 2036 · Morocco

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2031 is decided.
Internet use moves from 91.2% of the population (2024) to between 95% and 97% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 96% — a rise of 4.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.6 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 1.8 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $4,461 to $6,144 by 2031. The $1,683 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $4,672.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 40.2 million — roughly 1.8 million more people than in 2025, about 26.9 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access is already 100% (2024). It is not where this country's 2036 is decided.
Internet use moves from 91.2% of the population (2024) to between 96% and 98% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 97% — a rise of 6 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 1.2 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 2.2 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $4,292 to $7,720 by 2036. The $3,428 between them is wider than half today's $4,672.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 41.4 million — roughly 3 million more people than in 2025, about 27.7 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

The World Bank approved a US50 million Morocco Digital Transformation Acceleration Program on 12 June 2026, financing public…. Recorded as funded: it still has to be implemented rather than merely resourced before it counts as a change in how things work.
Morocco is named as a planned expansion market for the Nvidia–Cassava GPU deployment programme. Recorded as announced: it still has to be enacted or formally adopted before it counts as a change in how things work.
The Moroccan government has pledged to prioritise job creation in the coming years, with the World Bank recording that the labour…. Recorded as announced: it still has to be enacted or formally adopted before it counts as a change in how things work.

What the growth model cannot see · Morocco

Climate exposure & disaster risk

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

146,000 new displacements from disasters were recorded in 2023. Freshwater withdrawals stood at 51% of renewable resources (2022). 28% of employment is in agriculture (2025). Climate is not an environmental topic here — it is the household income of most of the workforce, and a bad season is a nationwide wage cut.

Why the band cannot contain it

Climate impact is non-linear and arrives as discrete events. A decade of trailing growth contains the droughts that happened, not the ones now becoming more likely.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A multi-season drought or a major flood event affecting the main producing regions. Discrete climate events are outside any band built from recent averages.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Morocco

10 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

2 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Morocco. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

6 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

2 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

6 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

2 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Morocco · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels