Shareable intelligence

Malawi

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Malawi

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$672 2025	$639 – $754	$613 – $831
Electricity access	16% 2024	17% – 19%	18% – 22%
Internet use	19% 2024	24% – 31%	28% – 38%

Growth bands: -0.82% · 0.57% · 1.96% a year per person, from Malawi's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess

2031 versus 2036 · Malawi

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 15.6% of the population (2024) to between 17% and 19% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 18% — a rise of 2.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 21.1 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 2.3 million more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 19% of the population (2024) to between 24% and 31% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 27% — a rise of 8 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 18.8 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 803,792 more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $639 to $754 by 2031. The $115 between them is under a quarter of today's $672.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 25.8 million — roughly 3.5 million more people than in 2025, about 15.4 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 15.6% of the population (2024) to between 18% and 22% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 20% — a rise of 4.2 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 23.1 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 4.4 million more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 19% of the population (2024) to between 28% and 38% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 32% — a rise of 13.3 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 19.5 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 1.5 million more than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $613 to $831 by 2036. The $218 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $672.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 28.8 million — roughly 6.6 million more people than in 2025, about 17.7 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

The Mpatamanga hydropower project has a combined installed capacity of 358 MW, is scheduled to begin construction in early 2026…. Recorded as funded: it still has to actually break ground before it counts as capacity.
The project is structured as a public-private partnership between an EDF and SN Power consortium (55%), the Government of Malawi…. Recorded as funded: it still has to actually reach recipients rather than sit in an envelope before it counts as money in motion.
For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 2% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 3.1% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Malawi

Climate exposure & disaster risk

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

660,000 new displacements from disasters were recorded in 2023. Freshwater withdrawals stood at 18% of renewable resources (2022). 65% of employment is in agriculture (2025). Climate is not an environmental topic here — it is the household income of most of the workforce, and a bad season is a nationwide wage cut.

Why the band cannot contain it

Climate impact is non-linear and arrives as discrete events. A decade of trailing growth contains the droughts that happened, not the ones now becoming more likely.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A multi-season drought or a major flood event affecting the main producing regions. Discrete climate events are outside any band built from recent averages.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Malawi

7 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Malawi. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

3 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

4 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

6 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Malawi · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels