Shareable intelligence

Nigeria

5 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Western Africa

Nigeria

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$1,224 2025	$1,058 – $1,450	$937 – $1,669
Electricity access	63% 2024	66% – 70%	68% – 74%
Internet use	41% 2024	49% – 57%	53% – 65%

Growth bands: -2.4% · 0.23% · 2.86% a year per person, from Nigeria's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess
Off-grid communities, whose wait lengthens if capital concentrates on urban and industrial load

2031 versus 2036 · Nigeria

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 62.5% of the population (2024) to between 66% and 70% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 67% — a rise of 4.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 87.2 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 1.9 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 41.2% of the population (2024) to between 49% and 57% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 52% — a rise of 10.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 128.1 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 11.5 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,058 to $1,450 by 2031. The $392 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $1,224.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 267.4 million — roughly 29.9 million more people than in 2025, about 158.2 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 62.5% of the population (2024) to between 68% and 74% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 71% — a rise of 8 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 86.4 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 2.7 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 41.2% of the population (2024) to between 53% and 65% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 59% — a rise of 17.4 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 121.2 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 18.4 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $937 to $1,669 by 2036. The $732 between them is wider than half today's $1,224.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 292.7 million — roughly 55.2 million more people than in 2025, about 177.7 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

The Investment in Digital and Creative Enterprises programme (i-DICE) is a US$618 million financing envelope for Nigerian digital…. Recorded as funded: it still has to actually reach recipients rather than sit in an envelope before it counts as money in motion.
Nigeria is the eastern endpoint of the Abidjan–Lagos Corridor Highway, a roughly 1,028–1,081 km coastal motorway estimated at…. Recorded as approved: it still has to reach financial close before it counts as capacity.
Nigeria is one of five countries holding effectively all of Africa's data centre capacity, and its installed IT load could exceed…. Recorded as announced: it still has to clear legal or board approval before it counts as capacity.

What the growth model cannot see · Nigeria

Political instability & conflict

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Political stability scored -2 in 2024, in the lowest band of the Worldwide Governance Indicators, with 3.5 million people internally displaced (2025). The distance between scenarios here is set by whether the security situation holds, not by economic policy. The modelled band, drawn from recent economic history, does not describe what further deterioration would mean.

Why the band cannot contain it

Conflict does not appear in a trailing growth average until after it has already happened. A country at peace for fifteen years has no war in its variance.

What would invalidate the modelled band

Onset or escalation of armed conflict. The modelled band is drawn from economic history and contains no war; if this occurs, disregard the quantitative path entirely.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Nigeria

13 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

1 dimension has not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Nigeria. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

5 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

8 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

2 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

4 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

1 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Creative & cultural intelligence · Nigeria

Cross-sector / whole creative economy

Measured as A financing or policy programme envelope, not a measure of sector size.

The Investment in Digital and Creative Enterprises programme (i-DICE) is a US$618 million financing envelope for Nigerian digital and creative businesses, blending African Development Bank ($170m), Agence Française de Développement (€100m) and Islamic Development Bank ($70m) money with a Bank of Industry counterpart contribution ($45m).

Limits of this figure

This is the size of a financing facility, not the size of Nigeria’s creative economy. Disbursement against the envelope is not tracked publicly at item level, so how much of the $618m has reached enterprises is not established here.

Creative-economy figures are the most definition-sensitive numbers on this platform: the same country measured under a different frame can differ by a factor of three. Continental totals are held separately and are never attached to a country.

Source: African Development Bank and partners invest $618 million in Nigeria’s digital and creative industries — African Development Bank, 2023-03 · primary · verified 2026-07-25

Full brief for Nigeria · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels