Shareable intelligence

Sierra Leone

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Western Africa

Sierra Leone

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$846 2025	$723 – $1,231	$634 – $1,681
Electricity access	39% 2024	47% – 55%	52% – 64%
Internet use	25% 2024	32% – 41%	37% – 50%

Growth bands: -2.59% · 1.93% · 6.44% a year per person, from Sierra Leone's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess
Off-grid communities, whose wait lengthens if capital concentrates on urban and industrial load
Rural, older, poorer and less literate people, who are last in every connectivity sequence

2031 versus 2036 · Sierra Leone

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 39.2% of the population (2024) to between 47% and 55% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 50% — a rise of 11.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 4.9 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 456,896 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 25.1% of the population (2024) to between 32% and 41% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 36% — a rise of 10.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 6.3 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 288,593 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $723 to $1,231 by 2031. The $508 between them is wider than half today's $846.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 9.9 million — roughly 1.1 million more people than in 2025, about 6 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 39.2% of the population (2024) to between 52% and 64% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 57% — a rise of 17.8 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 4.6 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 746,666 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 25.1% of the population (2024) to between 37% and 50% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 43% — a rise of 17.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 6.1 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 465,538 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $634 to $1,681 by 2036. The $1,047 between them is wider than half today's $846.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 10.7 million — roughly 1.9 million more people than in 2025, about 6.7 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 6.4% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 12.2% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Sierra Leone

Energy availability

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

39% of the population had electricity in 2024, falling to 25% in rural areas. Every optimistic scenario for this country runs through this number: no cold chain, no irrigation pump, no evening study, no workshop, no compute.

Why the band cannot contain it

Electricity is a precondition, not an output. A growth average cannot express that a factory, clinic or data centre simply cannot be operated at all.

What would invalidate the modelled band

Either a step change in generation and transmission delivery, or a sustained supply failure. Both break a projection built on gradual access gains.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Sierra Leone

4 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

4 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Sierra Leone. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

3 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

4 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Sierra Leone · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels