Shareable intelligence

Eswatini

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Southern Africa

Eswatini

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$4,108 2025	$4,089 – $5,100	$4,072 – $6,107
Electricity access	89% 2024	94% – 97%	96% – 99%
Internet use	63% 2024	73% – 82%	79% – 89%

Growth bands: -0.08% · 1.8% · 3.67% a year per person, from Eswatini's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

Educated young people whose qualifications do not convert into work
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess
Irrigating farmers and cities drawing on the same stressed sources

2031 versus 2036 · Eswatini

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 89.3% of the population (2024) to between 94% and 97% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 95% — a rise of 6 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 62,659 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 71,752 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 63.4% of the population (2024) to between 73% and 82% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 78% — a rise of 14.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 299,963 would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 159,757 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $4,089 to $5,100 by 2031. The $1,011 between them is under a quarter of today's $4,108.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 1.3 million — roughly 76,996 more people than in 2025, about 861,876 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 89.3% of the population (2024) to between 96% and 99% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 97% — a rise of 8.1 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 36,144 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 98,267 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 63.4% of the population (2024) to between 79% and 89% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 84% — a rise of 20.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 223,815 would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 235,906 fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $4,072 to $6,107 by 2036. The $2,035 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $4,108.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 1.4 million — roughly 133,981 more people than in 2025, about 919,886 of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

For the Acceleration band to describe the decade, growth per person has to hold near 3.7% a year. This country has reached that rate before — its best year in the window was 5.5% — but has not sustained it across the 15-year record the band is drawn from.

What the growth model cannot see · Eswatini

Education & workforce capability

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Gross tertiary enrolment was 6.4% in 2013, with adult literacy at 91% (2022). A state cannot regulate, procure, audit or localise technologies it has too few people trained to understand. This constrains AI governance, energy planning and public administration simultaneously, and it takes a decade to change — which is exactly this platform's horizon.

Why the band cannot contain it

Human capital compounds on a decade lag. The tertiary enrolment rate today sets the ceiling on what the state can regulate and what firms can build in 2036, and no growth average encodes that.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A sustained collapse or expansion in enrolment, or large-scale emigration of trained professionals.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Eswatini

5 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Eswatini. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

1 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

5 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

7 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Eswatini · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels