Shareable intelligence

Tanzania

4 objects, each built so its context cannot be cropped away. Every one states the scenario range rather than a single value, carries the confidence level and the date the evidence was last checked, and links back to the full page it came from.

Copy a card's link to share it. Screenshot one and the qualifications come with it, because they are inside the frame rather than under it.

Country outlook · Eastern Africa

Tanzania

Three scenarios, two horizons. The range is the finding — a single number would imply knowledge nobody has.

Measure	Latest observed	2031	2036
Output per person	$1,319 2025	$1,438 – $1,639	$1,545 – $1,965
Electricity access	52% 2024	62% – 71%	67% – 80%
Internet use	31% 2024	40% – 50%	46% – 60%

Growth bands: 1.45% · 2.57% · 3.69% a year per person, from Tanzania's own 15-year record (2011–2025) — mean ± 0.85 standard deviations, clamped to its own 5th–95th percentile. Not an outside estimate of what this country might do.

Who this outlook leaves out

A cohort that reaches working age faster than jobs, training places or clinics are built
Rain-fed farming households, first and hardest, in a bad season
A state that must regulate technologies it has too few trained people to assess

2031 versus 2036 · Tanzania

Two horizons, asked the same question

By 2031

Household electricity access moves from 52.4% of the population (2024) to between 62% and 71% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 66% — a rise of 13.5 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 28.3 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 5.2 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 31.2% of the population (2024) to between 40% and 50% by 2031, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 44% — a rise of 12.9 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 46.4 million would still be without it in 2031 under continuation — 2.1 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,438 to $1,639 by 2031. The $201 between them is under a quarter of today's $1,319.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 83.1 million — roughly 12.5 million more people than in 2025, about 46.6 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2031 have already been born.

By 2036

Household electricity access moves from 52.4% of the population (2024) to between 67% and 80% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 73% — a rise of 20.7 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 25.4 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 8.2 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Internet use moves from 31.2% of the population (2024) to between 46% and 60% by 2036, depending on the scenario. Simple continuation gives 52% — a rise of 20.6 percentage points.
In people rather than percentages: about 45.5 million would still be without it in 2036 under continuation — 3.1 million fewer than in 2024, because the population grows as the share improves.
Output per person spans $1,545 to $1,965 by 2036. The $420 between them is a quarter to a half of today's $1,319.
That spread is the distance between scenarios, not a margin of error — and it is a national average, which does not identify whose income moved.
The population reaches about 94.4 million — roughly 23.9 million more people than in 2025, about 54.4 million of them of working age.
This figure is the same in all three scenarios. Most of the people who will be alive in 2036 have already been born.

What has to happen first

Tanzania published the Digital Economy Strategic Framework 2024–2034 through its ICT Commission, launched in July 2024, setting…. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
The framework is prepared by the National Council for Financial Inclusion through its secretariat at the Bank of Tanzania as a…. Recorded as approved: it still has to be funded and staffed before it counts as a change in how things work.
Tanzania is identified as being at the drafting stage of a national AI policy. Recorded as proposed: it still has to be adopted before it counts as a change in how things work.

What the growth model cannot see · Tanzania

Population pressure & the youth cohort

Binding constraint — This, not the growth model, is the operative question.

Population is projected to rise 30.1% by 2036, from 72.6 million to 94.4 million — 21.9 million additional people, on a base where 42% were already under 15 in 2025. Holding living standards constant requires building at that rate merely to stand still. This is the most fixed variable on the page and the least optional.

Why the band cannot contain it

Per-capita growth already nets out population, which hides the absolute scale of what must be built. A constant GDP per capita with a doubling population means twice the schools for the same living standard.

What would invalidate the modelled band

A significant revision to the UN World Population Prospects for this country. The population path here is carried through unchanged and is the least uncertain input on the page.

Assessed in words and deliberately not converted into a probability. This platform does not publish likelihoods it cannot derive from evidence.

AI evidence state · Tanzania

9 of 20 dimensions rest on a document or a measurement

3 dimensions have not been examined at all — which is a statement about this platform's research, not about Tanzania. There is no readiness score here: ranking countries by a weighted sum of twenty evidence states would manufacture a number nobody measured.

4 Measured A published measurement exists for this country and has been read.

5 Documented A policy, law, contract or programme document exists. No measurement of its effect has been found.

3 Inferred Assessed from adjacent indicators. Nothing AI-specific was found for this country; the reading is circumstantial.

5 Not evident Searched, and nothing was found. Informative — but the absence of a published record is not proof that nothing exists.

3 Unexamined This platform has not looked. This is a statement about the research, not about the country.

Full brief for Tanzania · Open in the atlas · Method · How to read the labels