Zambia

Scenarios and horizons

What could materially change by 2031 and 2036?

Scenarios are arithmetic on observed history under a published assumption. They are not predictions and carry no probability. 2026, 2031, 2036 are the only formal horizons — no value is projected for any year between them.

Youth labour-market entry

How many young people may enter working age, and what does entering the labour market look like?

• Announced

  Zambia’s National School of Government has run Fourth Industrial Revolution training programmes to give public servants digital skills, recorded by the OECD as beginning in 2024.

  What this does not establish. The initiative’s existence and start year are recorded; no completion figure, participant count or end date is published, so nothing here establishes how many public servants have been trained.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

• Operational

  Zambian growth is estimated at 4.6% in 2025 and projected to average 5.3% across 2026–28, supported by agriculture, mining and agrifood processing; more than 58% of the population earned less than US.90 a day on 2015 data, against 41% across Sub-Saharan Africa.

  What this does not establish. The poverty figure is from 2015 and is the most recent this source carries — a decade-old measure being used to describe a present condition, which is a limitation of the evidence base rather than of the country. The 2026–28 growth figure is a projection and is labelled as one.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

What kinds of work dominate

Where do people actually work, and how might that change?

Female participation rate — Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+) (modeled ILO estimate). Percentage of the FEMALE population aged 15 and over who are in the labour force, employed or unemployed.

• Operational

  Zambian growth is estimated at 4.6% in 2025 and projected to average 5.3% across 2026–28, supported by agriculture, mining and agrifood processing; more than 58% of the population earned less than US.90 a day on 2015 data, against 41% across Sub-Saharan Africa.

  What this does not establish. The poverty figure is from 2015 and is the most recent this source carries — a decade-old measure being used to describe a present condition, which is a limitation of the evidence base rather than of the country. The 2026–28 growth figure is a projection and is labelled as one.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

Infrastructure constraints

What are the physical limits — connection, power, and where they reach?

No reviewed document in this platform's research record bears on this question for this country. That is a gap in the evidence, not a finding about the country.

Education and practical AI skills

What is the education base, and what is being built on top of it?

• Approved Sources disagree

  Zambia has a National Artificial Intelligence Strategy led by the Ministry of Technology and Science, recorded by the OECD as covering 2024 to 2026 with a start year of 2025, prioritising human capital, digital infrastructure, data ecosystems, research and sectoral adoption.

  What this does not establish. The period is disputed. The OECD records the strategy as covering 2024–2026; a document published on the ministry’s own site is titled for 2025–2027. The ministry copy could not be opened to settle it — its server presents an incomplete TLS certificate chain — so both readings are recorded rather than one being chosen.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

• Announced

  Zambia’s National School of Government has run Fourth Industrial Revolution training programmes to give public servants digital skills, recorded by the OECD as beginning in 2024.

  What this does not establish. The initiative’s existence and start year are recorded; no completion figure, participant count or end date is published, so nothing here establishes how many public servants have been trained.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

Informal enterprise and MSMEs

How may informal enterprises and small firms be affected, and what would let one grow?

Account ownership (incl. mobile money) — Account ownership at a financial institution or with a mobile-money-service provider (% of population ages 15+). Percentage of the population aged 15 and over. Counts an account at a bank or other financial institution, OR personal use of a mobile-money service in the past 12 months. Mobile money IS included.

• Approved

  Zambia established a Government Digital Innovation Regulatory Sandbox, recorded by the OECD as beginning in 2023, through which digital innovations can be developed and tested under supervision.

  What this does not establish. No end date and no record of how many innovations have entered or left the sandbox.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

Financial inclusion

Who can be paid, save or borrow — and on what definition?

Account ownership (incl. mobile money) — Account ownership at a financial institution or with a mobile-money-service provider (% of population ages 15+). Percentage of the population aged 15 and over. Counts an account at a bank or other financial institution, OR personal use of a mobile-money service in the past 12 months. Mobile money IS included.

• Approved

  Zambia established a Government Digital Innovation Regulatory Sandbox, recorded by the OECD as beginning in 2023, through which digital innovations can be developed and tested under supervision.

  What this does not establish. No end date and no record of how many innovations have entered or left the sandbox.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

• Operational

  Zambia completed the sixth and final review of its 38-month Extended Credit Facility arrangement in January 2026, ending the arrangement; the country’s growth is estimated at 4.6% for 2025 with an average of 5.3% projected across 2026–28.

  What this does not establish. The completion of a programme is not a statement that its objectives were met, and the growth figures are an estimate and a projection respectively. This item records the monetary and fiscal frame Zambian implementation now operates in, not its outcome.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

Digital public services

What can a citizen do with the state without queueing?

Account ownership (incl. mobile money) — Account ownership at a financial institution or with a mobile-money-service provider (% of population ages 15+). Percentage of the population aged 15 and over. Counts an account at a bank or other financial institution, OR personal use of a mobile-money service in the past 12 months. Mobile money IS included.

• Approved

  Zambia established a Government Digital Innovation Regulatory Sandbox, recorded by the OECD as beginning in 2023, through which digital innovations can be developed and tested under supervision.

  What this does not establish. No end date and no record of how many innovations have entered or left the sandbox.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

Agriculture and creative enterprise

Two sectors that employ many and are measured badly. What is known?

• Partially operational

  Zambia’s Agribusiness and Trade Project reports 3,000 jobs created and the GEWEL project reports 148,616 girls enrolled in secondary school, exceeding its target; shortages of hydroelectric power and continued reliance on mining are named as significant threats to the outlook.

  What this does not establish. Project outturns reported against project targets, not national effects. The hydroelectric shortage is named as a threat without a quantified supply figure, so this platform states no generation or outage measure for Zambia.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

Local innovation, compute and technology ownership

Is capability being built here, or rented from elsewhere?

• Approved Sources disagree

  Zambia has a National Artificial Intelligence Strategy led by the Ministry of Technology and Science, recorded by the OECD as covering 2024 to 2026 with a start year of 2025, prioritising human capital, digital infrastructure, data ecosystems, research and sectoral adoption.

  What this does not establish. The period is disputed. The OECD records the strategy as covering 2024–2026; a document published on the ministry’s own site is titled for 2025–2027. The ministry copy could not be opened to settle it — its server presents an incomplete TLS certificate chain — so both readings are recorded rather than one being chosen.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

Regional inequality

Does the national figure describe the country, or its capital?

• Proposed

  The Lobito Corridor Zambia extension was expected to reach fundraising in Q3 2026 with financial close targeted for Q4 2027.

  Connecting the DRC, Zambia and Angola to global markets through the Lobito Corridor European Commission, Global Gateway, 2026 · Primary

• Operational

  Zambian growth is estimated at 4.6% in 2025 and projected to average 5.3% across 2026–28, supported by agriculture, mining and agrifood processing; more than 58% of the population earned less than US.90 a day on 2015 data, against 41% across Sub-Saharan Africa.

  What this does not establish. The poverty figure is from 2015 and is the most recent this source carries — a decade-old measure being used to describe a present condition, which is a limitation of the evidence base rather than of the country. The 2026–28 growth figure is a projection and is labelled as one.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

Gender and rural exclusion

Who is left out of the measured gains, and is it measured at all?

Female participation rate — Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+) (modeled ILO estimate). Percentage of the FEMALE population aged 15 and over who are in the labour force, employed or unemployed.

• Announced

  Zambia’s National School of Government has run Fourth Industrial Revolution training programmes to give public servants digital skills, recorded by the OECD as beginning in 2024.

  What this does not establish. The initiative’s existence and start year are recorded; no completion figure, participant count or end date is published, so nothing here establishes how many public servants have been trained.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

• Partially operational

  Zambia’s Agribusiness and Trade Project reports 3,000 jobs created and the GEWEL project reports 148,616 girls enrolled in secondary school, exceeding its target; shortages of hydroelectric power and continued reliance on mining are named as significant threats to the outlook.

  What this does not establish. Project outturns reported against project targets, not national effects. The hydroelectric shortage is named as a threat without a quantified supply figure, so this platform states no generation or outage measure for Zambia.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

Institutional implementation capability

Can the state actually deliver what it commits to — fiscally, administratively, and through a political cycle?

• Operational

  The IMF Executive Board completed the sixth and final review of Zambia's 38-month Extended Credit Facility arrangement in January 2026, the arrangement having been approved in August 2022.

  IMF Executive Board Completes Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility with Zambia International Monetary Fund, 2026-01-27 · Primary

• Operational

  Zambian growth is estimated at 4.6% in 2025 and projected to average 5.3% across 2026–28, supported by agriculture, mining and agrifood processing; more than 58% of the population earned less than US.90 a day on 2015 data, against 41% across Sub-Saharan Africa.

  What this does not establish. The poverty figure is from 2015 and is the most recent this source carries — a decade-old measure being used to describe a present condition, which is a limitation of the evidence base rather than of the country. The 2026–28 growth figure is a projection and is labelled as one.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

• Operational

  Zambia completed the sixth and final review of its 38-month Extended Credit Facility arrangement in January 2026, ending the arrangement; the country’s growth is estimated at 4.6% for 2025 with an average of 5.3% projected across 2026–28.

  What this does not establish. The completion of a programme is not a statement that its objectives were met, and the growth figures are an estimate and a projection respectively. This item records the monetary and fiscal frame Zambian implementation now operates in, not its outcome.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

Announced versus delivered

How much of what has been announced has actually arrived?

Based on 8 dated records. A larger number means more evidence has been reviewed, not that more has happened.

Where AI adoption is evident

What is actually recorded as happening, and at what delivery stage?

• Operational

  The IMF Executive Board completed the sixth and final review of Zambia's 38-month Extended Credit Facility arrangement in January 2026, the arrangement having been approved in August 2022.

  IMF Executive Board Completes Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility with Zambia International Monetary Fund, 2026-01-27 · Primary

• Operational

  Zambian growth is estimated at 4.6% in 2025 and projected to average 5.3% across 2026–28, supported by agriculture, mining and agrifood processing; more than 58% of the population earned less than US.90 a day on 2015 data, against 41% across Sub-Saharan Africa.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

• Partially operational

  Zambia’s Agribusiness and Trade Project reports 3,000 jobs created and the GEWEL project reports 148,616 girls enrolled in secondary school, exceeding its target; shortages of hydroelectric power and continued reliance on mining are named as significant threats to the outlook.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

• Operational

  Zambia completed the sixth and final review of its 38-month Extended Credit Facility arrangement in January 2026, ending the arrangement; the country’s growth is estimated at 4.6% for 2025 with an average of 5.3% projected across 2026–28.

  Zambia — Country Overview World Bank, 2026 · Primary

Where it is not evident

Which areas have been examined and show nothing?

These decision areas have been examined for this country — the record covers adjacent areas — and no document bearing on them was found.

• Infrastructure constraints

Not evident is a statement about the reviewed record. It is not a statement that nothing is happening.

What remains unexamined

Which areas has this platform not reviewed at all? Absent evidence is not evidence of absence.

Every decision area carries at least one reviewed document.

Who may benefit

Which groups are positioned to gain, on the evidence held?

On the shared data, Zambia's working-age share was 57.4% in 2026, implying about 12.6m people of working age. 41% of the population were under 15 in 2025, and will be reaching working age within these horizons.

A share of the population, and the count implied by it. Working age is not employment, and entering working age is not entering the labour market. Which of these people a given intervention reaches is not established by any series this platform holds; it is a question for programme-level data.

Who may be reached last

Which groups are positioned to be reached last, or missed?

The platform can name the exclusion dimensions it measures, and only those.

Disability, internal migration status and sub-national variation are unexamined for this country. A safeguard aimed at them could not be verified here.

Plausible institutional actions

What could an institution actually do here, given the constraints on the record?

This instrument does not recommend. What it can do is state which levers its evidence base can say anything about for Zambia, and which it cannot.

Open the Decision Lab for Zambia →

What must happen for improvement

What are the gates between the current position and a better one?

4 records sit at intent — announced or approved, nothing built. Each has a delivery gate it has not yet passed.

• Proposed

  The Lobito Corridor Zambia extension was expected to reach fundraising in Q3 2026 with financial close targeted for Q4 2027.

  Connecting the DRC, Zambia and Angola to global markets through the Lobito Corridor European Commission, Global Gateway, 2026 · Primary

• Approved

  Zambia has a National Artificial Intelligence Strategy led by the Ministry of Technology and Science, recorded by the OECD as covering 2024 to 2026 with a start year of 2025, prioritising human capital, digital infrastructure, data ecosystems, research and sectoral adoption.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

• Announced

  Zambia’s National School of Government has run Fourth Industrial Revolution training programmes to give public servants digital skills, recorded by the OECD as beginning in 2024.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

• Approved

  Zambia established a Government Digital Innovation Regulatory Sandbox, recorded by the OECD as beginning in 2023, through which digital innovations can be developed and tested under supervision.

  National AI policy initiatives — Zambia OECD.AI Policy Observatory, 2025 · Official

What could invalidate this

What would have to be true for this reading to be wrong?

• A delivered record proving to have been withdrawn or suspended, which would move the delivery counts and is recorded here when it happens.
• A revision to the underlying indicator series by its issuing body, which would move the baseline every scenario starts from.
• Evidence that a programme recorded as national in scope operates in only part of the country, which would change who it reaches without changing its status.

What to watch next

Which specific, checkable things would move the picture?

Specific and checkable, drawn from this country's own record rather than from a general list.

• Whether The Lobito Corridor Zambia extension was expected to reach fundraising in Q3 2026 with financial close targete… moves past Proposed.
• Whether Zambia has a National Artificial Intelligence Strategy led by the Ministry of Technology and Science, recorded… moves past Approved.
• Whether Zambia’s National School of Government has run Fourth Industrial Revolution training programmes to give public… moves past Announced.
• Whether Zambia established a Government Digital Innovation Regulatory Sandbox, recorded by the OECD as beginning in 20… moves past Approved.

All signals for Zambia →

Milestone timeline

What is dated, what state is it in, and what does it not establish?

Lived experience

What does the evidence imply for a specific person, and who does it miss?

• Observed Plausible implication

  A young person entering work

  41% of the population was under 15 in 2025; gross secondary enrolment was 56.8% in 2024; recorded youth unemployment was 10.5% in 2025.

  Plausible implication, not measured: A cohort this size arriving against an enrolment rate below universal means the schooling a young person brings to the labour market varies widely, and a programme pitched above that level selects a minority of them.

  What would settle it. Completion rates by sex and location, and destination data six and twelve months after leaving school. Neither is held here.

  Who this misses. Young people already out of school, who are outside an enrolment measure by construction.

  Evidence used: youth, secondary, youthunemp.

• Observed Plausible implication

  An informal trader or micro-enterprise owner

  72.7% of people aged 15 and over held an account at a financial institution or personally used mobile money in 2024; domestic credit to the private sector was 17% of GDP in 2024; 35.2% of employment was in services in 2025.

  Plausible implication, not measured: Being payable is not being financeable. An account is a payment rail, and nothing in this platform establishes that account records are used in any lending decision.

  What would settle it. Firm-level credit surveys recording refusals and their reasons, and credit-bureau coverage figures.

  Who this misses. Unregistered traders, who are outside most support instruments by design rather than by accident.

  Evidence used: account, credit, servemp.

• Observed Plausible implication

  A farmer

  54.5% of employment was in agriculture in 2025, producing 4.1% of GDP in 2025; rural household electricity access was 31.3% in 2024.

  Plausible implication, not measured: Where the employment share far exceeds the output share, the productivity problem and the employment problem are the same problem. Rural power is the constraint on anything requiring storage, processing or irrigation.

  What would settle it. Yield and farm-income panels linked to adoption of a specific tool or service.

  Who this misses. Farmers without a connection at all, and anyone whose land tenure prevents investment regardless of technology.

  Evidence used: agriemp, agrigdp, electricityrural.

• Observed Plausible implication

  A teacher or learner

  Gross secondary enrolment 56.8% (2024); adult literacy 71.8% (2024); household electricity access 53.6% (2024).

  Plausible implication, not measured: Evening study, device charging and any screen-based material all assume power at home. Where access is short of universal, a digital learning programme reaches the connected fraction of an already-enrolled fraction.

  What would settle it. School-level electrification and connectivity audits, and learning outcomes disaggregated by both.

  Who this misses. Non-literate adults, for whom a text-based service is unavailable regardless of coverage.

  Evidence used: secondary, literacy, electricity.

• Observed Plausible implication

  A citizen using public services

  17.1% of people used the internet in 2024; 72.7% of people aged 15 and over held an account or used mobile money in 2024; the government effectiveness estimate was -0.53 in 2024.

  Plausible implication, not measured: Digitising a service moves it towards the people who can already reach it. Retaining an assisted or offline channel is what decides whether the rest keep access.

  What would settle it. Service-level uptake by channel, and the share of transactions still completed in person.

  Who this misses. People whose identity documents do not match registry records — unmeasured everywhere in this instrument.

  Evidence used: internet, account, goveff.

• Not generated

  A rural resident

  Not generated from the available evidence. This situation requires water, which is not held for this country. No prose is written in its place.

Each situation is built only where the indicators it names are held for this country. Where they are not, it says so rather than substituting general prose — a situation the evidence cannot support would read as a finding. The observed line is measured; the line marked as a plausible implication is an argument, and it names what would settle it.

Evidence quality and gaps

How much has been reviewed here, how good is it, and what is ageing?

Evidence depth differs between countries and this instrument renders the difference rather than smoothing it. A thin record is a statement about what has been reviewed. It is never a statement about the country, and it is never comparable to another country as a measure of performance.